The Quest is Daniel Yergin’s presentation of energy’s geopolitical history over the last thirty years or so from a US and Western perspective. Its a superb book, unerringly capturing the key events, triggers and decisions of the times, cutting out the noise and distractions and pulling out the major themes and drivers in world affairs. It’s a short must read seven hundred page briefing note for senior execs and politicians. It’s easily readable, objective and observational in style and scrupulously avoids discussion of the national political issues or motivations of the key players. The devastating condemnations of some of the worlds leading politicians and business leaders are so faint as to be almost, but not quite, undetectable.

Yergin is very clear. Oil, gas and coal are not about to run out. That’s very good news because at least 80% of the energy we use comes from those three sources, oil delivering most of our transport fuel whilst gas and coal deliver electricity and heat. Running out is not an issue. The questions are where is it all (geographically, geologically and politically), how do we get at it (physically, technologically and logistically), what does it cost (financially, politically, and environmentally), and what other energy sources are there (alternatives, renewables, conservation)? The answers to those questions are, respectively, far far away, using technology that hasn’t even been invented yet, appallingly, cripplingly expensive, and plenty, if the economic drivers are right. Those four answers explain why energy has stayed at the top of the world’s agenda since the 1940s or even earlier.

The book follows the money rather than the technologies and shows how energy security, the rise and fall of oil prices and concerns over pollution and climate change have driven the government subsidies, tax breaks and penalties that have in turn driven technological development in energy and conservation technologies. And driven revolutions, insurrections, terrorism and war. It shows how despite all the innovation and conservation and advances in alternative fuels the reliance on hydrocarbons will continue at the same levels simply because increases in overall demand are absorbing all the supply side gains and demand-side advances. And between the lines it shows how much the energy world has changed over the last century but how little those of politics and economics have.

I’ll finish with a couple of Yergin’s telling anecdotes about decision-making and decision makers. At Kyoto in 1997 agreement was deadlocked by the US insistence on including emissions trading in the protocol and the EU’s utter rejection of the idea. Stuart Eizenstat for the US told John Prescott for the EU that ‘We’re not going to sign, we’re not going to do it … All this time over the last 15 days will be wasted. Do you really want to go back to Europe with no agreement … or we can have an historic agreement.’ Agreement was quickly forthcoming.

Then in 2009 came Copenhagen, the follow-up to Kyoto. Barak Obama flew in towards the end of the conference to be told by Hilary Clinton that things were going badly. He discovered and gatecrashed a meeting of the BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India, China) leaders and helped draft a proposal about non-binding pledges and verification of voluntary mitigating actions. Job done, he flew back out to Washington again. Funnily enough, agreement at Copenhagen did not materialize.

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